No word yet on Al Gore’s response.
Posted on 05/16/2024 7:54:47 AM PDT by absalom01
A solar flare measured at X8.7 on the strength scale just emerged from AR 3664, the sunspot region responsible for last weekend's solar storms that sparked vivid auroras.
That's the most powerful solar flare of the current cycle, absolutely the most powerful since 2017, and comfortably within the top 20 solar flares ever measured.
As AR 3664 made its way toward the edge of the Sun's disk, it wasn't just the X8.7 flare on May 14 that erupted from the solar limb. On May 15, an X3.4 flare followed suit, suggesting that the giant sunspot region is going to continue its party on the far side of the Sun, out of view from Earth.
X-class flares are the most powerful eruptions our Sun can manage.
...
Because of the position of both flares, further solar storms from AR 3664 are unlikely. But a sunspot region that is just beyond the limb on the opposite side of the Sun, about to emerge from the far side, spat out an X2.9 flare, also on May 15 – which means we could be in for more interesting times here on Earth in the days ahead.
(Excerpt) Read more at sciencealert.com ...
But is that analogy really valid when looking at the modern North American power grid? Long-haul transmission lines are designed to operate at up to 500Kv, and transmit many megawatts of power. Would a CME really give those systems significant problems? Much is made of the regional step up and step down transformers handling all of that load, but surely those also have overcurrent and overheat protection.
Seems that journalists and others are very concerned about this, but the people who design long-range high power transmission systems are notably absent from that conversation.
Still concerned about a "Grid Down", but seems that the real threat would be industrial sabotage/attack of physical infrastructure.
Seriously wondering about this.
Stoopid climate change! What can’t it do?
X8.7!
This is the biggest evidence yet for Manmade Climate Crisis! The only solution is more Socialism.
No word yet on Al Gore’s response.
Profound statement: the solar min's and max's affect Earth's climate more than all the CO2 we can ever produce, which is just 0.043% of the atmosphere.
Luckily, I had the prescient ability to get a ham license prior to the wildfires of 2018 when Paradise burned. That being said—if communications go down I can communicate around the state the country and the world. 20watts and a wire will do it. Granted, for the days of actual solar storms I may not get out anywhere with the bands, but that will clear up and I will be able to communicate.
I’d like to know how long we have been tracking and measuring solar flares. There was the Carrington event, but how strong was that, and others before and after that hit countries that didn’t have telegraph wires strung for many miles. I don’t think we have had the technology for that long, which makes me wonder just how strong a CME can be. A few decades doesn’t give much data at all.
“Stoopid climate change! What can’t it do?”
Wmyn and minorities hardest hit.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
They mention some extrapolations of tree rings and ice core that indicate event an order of magnitude larger than Carrington in the past.
I thought the one last week was the strongest in 150 years.
.
I believe it was.
According to this, the one yesterday was bigger, though it’s not aimed at Earth.
In the past, the only people who ever seemed to pay attention to anything that could cause a “grid down” scenario were preppers, survivalists, some gun movement people falling into one or the other of the first two categories. IOW, people more or less on the right or right/populist side of things. Very much my tribe. But now it’s the other side hyping this, and they sound loopy, imho.
We never really hear about how much energy would be deposited into the elements of the grid that are so breathlessly discussed in the media. I have no idea, but how much additional current could be induced into a long-range transmision line? Would that even bother a system that operates at 500Kv? And even if things could get to damaging overcurrent levels, would it happen so fast that manual and automatic overcurrent protections in the transformers couldn’t kick in? An EMP, maybe I get it, but a CME?
Any high voltage system designers on the board who could shed any light?
The most powerful flare on record was in 2003, during the last solar maximum. It was so powerful that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. They cut-out at X17, and the flare was later estimated to be about X45.
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010100/a010109/10109_Flares_HTML_Transcript.html
Not really that long. Prior to the 20th century, we really had very little idea about solar flares, or even sunspots because the evidence of them was indirect at best. Chinese records of sunspots going back quite a way. Hundreds of years of records of sunspots IIRC.
We really have no idea how often really big flares happen. The best evidence would be very indirect, such as noting how far south aurora are visible.
For those interested in the phenomena, the best source on the net IMO is solarham.com, as they don't tend to start running around with their hair on fire about it.
Perhaps Kalifornia might see a “ Grid Up” event that stops that day’s “Brownouts”, just sayin…….
WWG1WGA!
“ According to this, the one yesterday was bigger, though it’s not aimed at Earth.”
Thanks.
Does this mean this one won’t cause the Northern lights to be seen as the recent one did?
This is my understanding.
Thanks.
I’d like to be able to see it, so that’s too bad.
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